Battling Hidden Risks: The Unknown Unknowns That Kill Your Business

Donald Rumsfeld, United States Secretary of Defense, famously introduced the concept of unknown unknowns in a press briefing to the general public in 2002. Ever since then the idea has been used in project management, risk analysis, and decision-making to categorize different types of knowledge and uncertainty in complex situations.

The Origin of Unknown Unknowns

Rumsfeld, however, did not invent the concept of classifying information into these categories. The concept of "Known Knowns," "Known Unknowns," and "Unknown Unknowns" is closely related to the Johari Window model, developed by psychologists Joseph Luft and Harrington Ingham in 1955. The Joharin Window model aims to enhance self-awareness and improve interpersonal communication by encouraging individuals to explore areas of knowledge and understanding with similar categories. The idea of "Unknown Unknowns" is embedded in the "Unknown Area" quadrant, highlighting the existence of factors that are beyond our current awareness or understanding. Since then, different professions, mostly analysts, have adapted the concept for their specific areas. When combined with Words of Estimative Probability, the concept found good applications in the intelligence and national security sector.

• Known Knowns: These are the things we are aware of and understand. In the context of electronics testing, these are defects and issues that are well-defined, known to occur, and can be specifically tested for.

• Known Unknowns: These are the things we are aware of but do not fully understand. In electronics testing, these represent defects or issues that can be identified in principle, but not completely diagnosed or anticipated. Often the reason is that a test would be too expensive.

• Unknown Unknowns: These are the things we are not aware of and do not understand. In electronics testing and cybersecurity, these represent unforeseen and novel issues that have not been previously encountered or considered.

The “Known Unknowns” and “Unknown Unknowns” clearly capture a unique, heightened business continuity risk that companies often ignore. "Unknown Unknowns" represent unforeseeable events or conditions that can disrupt operations without warning. Unlike "Known Unknowns," which are risks that can be anticipated and planned for, "Unknown Unknowns" are completely unexpected and often arise from unprecedented or rare circumstances. This unpredictability makes it difficult for companies to develop contingency plans, leaving them vulnerable to significant operational, financial, and reputational damage.

How Palitronica Anvil Complements ICT and AOI to Detect Unknown Unknowns

Companies often ignore the risk from “Unknown Unknowns”, because testing for something that is unknown has been prohibitively expensive before. Traditional testing methods do not cover the “Unknown Unknowns” on an electrical level.

• ICT typically operates only on “Known Knowns”. A programmed test checks a specific component in a specific way. A successful pass in the test provides only limited information and insight as it focuses on something very specific and known.

• AOI can test “Known Knowns” and venture into the “Known Unknowns” territory. A visual test of a specific component can provide information on that component being the expected one (=Known Known). A visual anomaly detection test on an area can reveal that something has changed, but only identify visual problems in an area, but not electrical problems.

Palitronica’s Anvil CheckPoint can mitigate the risks associated with “Known Unknowns” and “Unknown Unknowns” in a cost-effective and efficient manner through its two operating modes of testing against known, and the odd-sample-out mode.

How Prepared Are You?

In light of the complexities highlighted by Rumsfeld's "Unknown Unknowns" and the adaptability of the Johari Window model, it is crucial for professionals in auto, aerospace, and electronics manufacturing industries to engage in introspection and proactive questioning to mitigate risks and enhance operational resilience. What undiscovered vulnerabilities might exist within our systems? Are there unexamined areas in our processes that could harbor unknown risks? How can we integrate advanced testing methods to uncover these hidden issues? Moreover, are we fostering a culture of continuous learning and adaptability that allows us to swiftly respond to unforeseen challenges? By asking these critical questions, we can better prepare for the unpredictable and ensure our industries remain robust and innovative in the face of uncertainty.